54 years later ...

Image by Noel Johnson. Data source: MIT World3 ‘Business as Usual’ model (Meadows et al., 1972).

A truly excellent article by Noel Johnson on Medium on the Limits to Growth brings back memories as I too wrote a piece on LTG back in 2021 echoing some of Johnson's thoughts about a 54 year old prediction proving out to be all too true in terms of accuracy most astounding in this writer's opinion.

Recently, I found myself gazing at a line graph that felt more like a mirror than a piece of data. It wasn’t a graph of last year’s inflation rate. It was a 1972 forecast of the future, shown on a computer model known as World3. This model was created by a group of MIT researchers working for the Club of Rome and was used in the authored book, The Limits To Growth.

When the world3 model was first introduced, the entire scientific community basically laughed at it. Most economists dismissed it as "Malthusian," and politicians ignored it. We had entered into a period of unprecedented economic expansion and the concept that there would be an end to this type of expansion seemed like a total buzzkill from another era.

Sunset/rev L

Yesterday, I viewed the recent update to this information. What was interesting to see was how well the chaos of the 2020s supply chain fragility, along with the increasing costs of raw materials and the overall sense that our global economy is beginning to sputter, was nothing short of predictable. In fact, if you look at it now, a decade ago we mapped out exactly where we’d be today. We aren’t drifting wildly through history. We’re tracking a decades old systems model with alarming accuracy.

Growth does not cease due to lack of creative solutions. Growth ceases due to increased resistance within the system. As we deplete resources with increasing ease of access, we are forced to expend greater amounts of both energy and capital to obtain each subsequent unit of production. This phenomenon is referred to as diminishing returns on investment.

Lastly.

This is the Innovation Trap. Technology is a means of directing energy and materials, not a miraculous source of energy. Advanced technology often requires more complexity, not less. Rarer minerals, more accurate production and a highly specialized international supply chain are all necessary. Each ‘solution’ we design adds a new layer of upkeep and a new set of dependencies.

Technology is quicker and more effective, it is also far more prone to malfunction when the surroundings change.

And we haven't even discussed global warming, habitat destruction, resource depletion or forever wars.

And so it goes -  K. Vonnegut.