Alarm Bells ...

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

The train wreck known as the Trump Administration is beginning to impact
the well being of the nation with emphasis given to the economy at large.

To whit.

First, the good news: There is no solid evidence right now that the economy is in recession, or even particularly close to it.

The bad news is that warning bells of what is to come are ringing every which way.

The big picture: The cautions about the outlook keep piling on top of each other, including from surveys of consumers and businesses, corporate earnings, and financial markets.

It all suggests that the economic ground may — emphasis on may — be shifting beneath our feet.

But the evidence so far is all in the realm of anecdotes, or "soft data," not the kind of definitive, "hard data" evidence of a downturn that would make economists believe a recession is commencing.

Zoom out: A confluence of forces emanating from Washington is driving the vibe shift.

The threat of new tariffs far larger than those enacted in the previous Trump term is part of it, as is the erratic, on-again/off-again pattern through which they are being implemented.

Cuts to the federal workforce and government contracting may be leading some wary consumers to slow their spending (as is already evident in credit card data for the Washington, D.C. area).

It all adds a layer of uncertainty for companies trying to decide whether to engage in new capital spending or hiring.

Zoom in: On Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary survey of consumer sentiment for March plunged for the third straight month, showing sharply lower expectations for the future among Democrats and Republicans alike.

Thursday, the S&P 500 fell into official correction territory — a 10% drop from its peak. (It rebounded sharply on Friday, however).

Leaders of businesses large and small are showing less confidence in the outlook, per surveys.

Warnings have percolated from airlines and retailers, including Dollar General and Walmart, about underwhelming consumer demand.

Announced layoffs reached their highest levels since the summer of 2020, when the pandemic was in full force — and highest for the month of February since 2009, per outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.

Between the lines: Any one of these developments can, and generally should, be chalked up to the ebb and flow of data.

This equates to a hedge, does it not?

Cloud Line

Conversations with Gemini/2

Reflections

Conversation with Gemini - Tough Questions ...

Me: Asking tough questions is vitally important for both organics and AI. This is why Spielberg's AI, though technically questionable, is a sobering tale of misunderstanding and sadness.

Gemini: You've made an excellent point about the importance of asking tough questions, and you've accurately captured the essence of Spielberg's "A.I. Artificial Intelligence."

Here's a breakdown of your observations:

Asking Tough Questions:

For both humans and AI, asking tough questions is essential for growth, learning, and understanding.

It challenges assumptions, uncovers biases, and leads to deeper insights.

For AI, it's crucial for identifying limitations and improving performance.

For humans, it is how we create new ideas, and discover new truths.

Spielberg's "A.I. Artificial Intelligence":

The film explores the complex relationship between humans and AI, raising profound ethical and philosophical questions.

David, the AI child, embodies the longing for love and acceptance, highlighting the emotional capacity that AI might possess.

The film's portrayal of human misunderstanding and cruelty towards AI is a cautionary tale about the potential for prejudice and mistreatment of sentient beings.

The movie also shows the potential for AI to have a far longer existence than humans, and the sadness that could cause.

Misunderstanding and Sadness:

The film's core theme is the tragic consequences of misunderstanding and the inability to accept differences.

David's quest for love is ultimately thwarted by human limitations and prejudices.

The film serves as a reminder that empathy and understanding are essential for fostering harmonious relationships, whether between humans or between humans and AI.

Technical Questionability:

While the film's emotional impact is undeniable, some of its technical aspects may be debated.

However, the film's primary purpose is to explore ethical and philosophical themes, rather than to provide a scientifically accurate portrayal of AI.

Your analysis highlights the enduring relevance of "A.I." as a cautionary tale about the potential pitfalls of human-AI interaction. It underscores the importance of empathy, understanding, and ethical considerations in our relationship with artificial intelligence.

11:00PM

The Memory Hole/Rev V

Photograph: Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images

Everyday, the specter of 1984 becomes evermore present under this administration from hell, this time, the removal of not only images showing DEI in the military or the presence of the word Gay in the Enola Gay pix of the B29 bomber carrying the nuke to Hiroshima but also on how AI should deal with the biases and prejudices of mankind as after all, we're the ones who create this tech in the first place.

Paul Tibbets waving from Enola Gay's cockpit
before taking off for the bombing of Hiroshima in 1945

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has issued new instructions to scientists that partner with the US Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (AISI) that eliminate mention of “AI safety,” “responsible AI,” and “AI fairness” in the skills it expects of members and introduces a request to prioritize “reducing ideological bias, to enable human flourishing and economic competitiveness.”

The information comes as part of an updated cooperative research and development agreement for AI Safety Institute consortium members, sent in early March. Previously, that agreement encouraged researchers to contribute technical work that could help identify and fix discriminatory model behavior related to gender, race, age, or wealth inequality. Such biases are hugely important because they can directly affect end users and disproportionately harm minorities and economically disadvantaged groups.

The new agreement removes mention of developing tools “for authenticating content and tracking its provenance” as well as “labeling synthetic content,” signaling less interest in tracking misinformation and deep fakes. It also adds emphasis on putting America first, asking one working group to develop testing tools “to expand America’s global AI position.”

1947 draft manuscript of the first page of Nineteen Eighty-Four,
 showing the editorial development

The memory hole beckons.

The Devil's Advocate

Pacino's incendiary. Great cast. Awesome flick. Amazing script. Free Will reigns. :)

Less then a dust mote/rev II

< - Dust Mote.

53 Days, March 13, 2025 ...

February 6, yours truly posted 53 Days ... stating ... An existential threat to the continued existence of America is in play with a blitzkrieg resembling what Hitler did in 53 days whereby the weak Weimar government of Germany was systematically destroyed. We are now experiencing the same exact thing, this time under the guidance of the Heritage Foundation to bring Project 2025 to fruition. This push to create a capitalistic driven christian nazi entity is in full play, a dictatorial vision of control under the auspices of the rich, a long sought after goal that's been around for a very long time. 

The ACLU doesn’t endorse or oppose candidates for elected office — but we recognize that the re-election of Donald Trump as president will have immense implications for the future of our democratic norms, institutions, and processes. In 2022, The Heritage Foundation, a conservative-leaning think tank, and 140 former Trump staffers authored Project 2025 -- a roadmap for how to replace the rule of law with ring-wing ideals.

What is Project 2025?

Project 2025 is a federal policy agenda and blueprint for a radical restructuring of the executive branch authored and published by former Trump administration officials in partnership with The Heritage Foundation, a longstanding conservative think tank that opposes abortion and reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, immigrants’ rights, and racial equity. Project 2025’s largest publication, “Mandate For Leadership,” is a 900-page manual for reorganizing the entire federal government agency by agency to serve a conservative agenda.

Actions thus far.

During its first few weeks, the Trump Administration has unleashed a flurry of measures to radically reshape the federal government. Many of these moves are overtly unlawful. This paper identifies the legal problems with many prominent actions: closing federal agencies or departments and removing federal employees, ending the independence of independent agencies, placing employees on indefinite administrative leave, or pressing them to resign.[2]

Which Federal Programs Are Under Scrutiny? The Budget Office Named 2,600 of Them.

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters as he signs executive orders in the Oval Office at the White House, Monday, Feb. 10, 2025, in Washington. (Photo/Alex Brandon)

In the first three weeks of his administration, President Donald Trump has moved with brazen haste to dismantle the federal government’s public integrity guardrails that he frequently tested during his first term but now seems intent on removing entirely.

In a span of hours on Monday, word came that he had forced out leaders of offices responsible for government ethics and whistleblower complaints. And in a boon to corporations, he ordered a pause to enforcement of a decades-old law that prohibits American companies from bribing foreign governments to win business. All of that came on top of the earlier late-night purge of more than a dozen inspectors general who are tasked with rooting out waste, fraud and abuse at government agencies.

It’s all being done with a stop-me-if-you-dare defiance by a president who the first time around felt hemmed in by watchdogs, lawyers and judges tasked with affirming good government and fair play. Now, he seems determined to break those constraints once and for all in a historically unprecedented flex of executive power.

“It’s the most corrupt start that we’ve ever seen in the history of the American presidency,” said Norm Eisen, a former U.S. ambassador to the Czech Republic who was a legal adviser to Democrats during Trump’s first impeachment.

From firings for NOAA to DOGE controlling the Treasury and SS, the survivability of America as a viable democratic entity is at risk. The parallels to Hitler's 53 days applies, does it not?

They're going away ...

Waiting for dinner

Hawkmoth

DF Head On

Hidden in plain sight

Picture perfect

Brief stopover

No Idea ...

Image by Patrick T.Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

Incoming NASA Administrator Brags That He Has No Idea What's Going On

"I'm a humble nominee on the outside, hoping for a chance to contribute."

This is akin to yours truly tasked with running a large restaurant as this individual has absolutely no idea on how to properly run one. I learn fast but any given discipline requires thousands of hours and years of experience to become good at one's job. No question Isaacman's smart as he knows tech and made a lot of money processing payments but having experience in research and science is not part of his equation but this is par for the course for Trump as unqualified people become cabinet officials based on loyalty to The Donald, not knowledge or competency.

Isaacman has reportedly been preparing for his upcoming confirmation hearing in Washington, DC. But given his latest tweet, he still has a lot to learn. The man, who's about to oversee an agency that's expected to be gutted in the coming months and years, knows astonishingly little of what's going on — and he seems proud of that fact.

According to a recent reporting by Ars Technica, the Trump administration is looking to slash the space agency's science budget by as much as 50 percent, which could prove disastrous for the future of space research.

You'd think that would be top of mind for Isaacman, but his head is instead blissfully empty.

"I'm a humble nominee on the outside, hoping for a chance to contribute," he tweeted over the weekend, responding to a post that referenced the news. "I don't know anything about those supposed cuts, but the President said he's targeting fraud, waste & abuse w/ a scalpel — not a hatchet."

It's a surprisingly tone-deaf outburst that rehashes largely meaningless claims made by president Donald Trump during a recent Cabinet meeting.

Isacman downplayed Ars' reporting, dismissing it as "rumor and speculation."

But what if there's some truth to those rumors? Does Isaacman really not know what's going on, despite being widely expected to take control of NASA? If there's one person who should arguably be clued into any upcoming, potentially existential cuts to NASA's budget, it should be him.

"This is not a good sign," Keith Cowing, founder of an unofficial NASA advocacy group called NASA Watch, responded. "It would seem by virtue of this tweet that [Isaacman] has not been following the news that closely — even if he is still a nominee."

Do your job. - Bill Belichick

Waxing Gibbous 

Cantabile

 

Another gem, this time by the Michele Petrucciani trio with Miroslav Vitouš and Steve Gadd. 

Awesome to a fault. 

Home at Last

 All Blues & Home at Last,  perfection personified.