Yours truly is reading Numbers Don't Lie, Vaclave Smil,
VIDEO You can't handle the truth. - Nathan R. Jessup/A Few Good Men
Regarding global warming and transitioning to sustainables.
” That is not impossible – but it is very unlikely. Reaching that coal would require nothing short of a fundemental of the global transformation of the global economy on scales and at a speed unprecedented in human history, a task that would be impossible to to without major economic and social dislocations …. The contrasts between expressed concerns about global warming, the continued release of record volumes of carbon, and our capabilities to change that in the near time could not be starker”
and Smil's take on innovation ...
A lot of people think that innovation works on Moore’s law. The exponential annual growth of 35% a year is something for electronic components. This rate of progress has not happened much elsewhere in the real world. For most other things, you need to settle down for exponential growth of between 1.5% to 3% (if you are lucky). The hope that technology is going to solve everything overnight or renewable green energy is going to provide 99% of our energy in the next 5 years is unlikley going to happen. When you realise that the pace of change is gradual, and not as fast as some people making decisions think it is, you need to move beyond hope and back to what is realistic.
Any questions?
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