The Thermo-haline et al

The thermohaline circulation (Fig. 1)  is that part of the ocean circulation which is driven by density differences. Sea water density depends on temperature and salinity, hence the name thermo-haline. The salinity and temperature differences arise from heating/cooling at the sea surface and from the surface freshwater fluxes (evaporation and sea ice formation enhance salinity; precipitation, runoff and ice-melt decrease salinity)... It can be regarded as a big overturning of the world ocean, from top to bottom

But this "conveyor belt", which acts as the world's thermostat, is slowing due to global warming.

The largest source of the coldest water in the world's oceans ceased producing Antarctic Bottom Water in 1976. The surface water around Antarctica, which has be been freshening since the 1950's, formed a lid of low-density water stopping the overturning process in the Weddell sea near the coast of Antarctica. The Weddell Sea polynya, an area of open water the size of New Zealand, was the most productive source of cold Antarctic bottom water in the 1970s. Relatively warm salty water is pushed upwards by ocean currents moving over a ridge in the Weddell sea. Before 1980 this salty water reached the surface releasing large amounts of heat, then cooled and sank to the bottom of the ocean. The heat kept the huge hole in the ice pack called a polynya open, and a massive oceanic convection cell formed in the Antarctic winter. This convection cell cooled the global oceans while warming the air around Antarctica. Antarctic Bottom Water, the most voluminous water mass in the oceans, is now being replaced by warmer, less dense water masses as the deep oceans warm.

Which means...

The strengthened winds have spun up the strong current that rings Antarctica called the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This ring of fast moving water tends to block the transport of warm subtropical water towards Antarctica. However, the geography of the northern hemisphere has the opposite effect on the poleward transport of warm subtropical water. The Atlantic ocean is aligned to funnel warm subtropical water into the Arctic ocean as the subtropical highs strengthen and the trade winds speed up. Thus, the collapse of the Weddell Sea polynya has lead to increased transport of oceanic and atmospheric heat towards the Arctic. The rapid warming of the Arctic and the extraordinarily rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, which was not predicted by climate models, is a likely consequence of the collapse of the Weddell Sea polynya, which had been the most productive source of Antarctic Bottom Water (ABW). The authors of this report don't discuss the effects of the end of Weddell Sea bottom water formation on the global ocean circulation or the Arctic (the discussion here is based on my extensive review of paleoclimatology research) but they do hint at the importance of the decline in ABW formation.

Which means... the jet stream is weakened as well because when the arctic becomes warmer, the temperature gradient from north to south lessens, thus causing the jet stream to lose strength and move south as a result, which enables such events as the Polar Vortex and intense snow storms to occur with greater frequency.

  

A study in 2001 found that stratospheric circulation can have anomalous effects on the weather regimes.[29] In the same year researchers found a statistical correlation between weak polar vortex and outbreaks of severe cold in the Northern Hemisphere.[30][31] In more recent years scientists identified interactions with Arctic sea ice decline, reduced snow cover, evapotranspiration patterns, NAO anomalies or weather anomalies which are linked to the polar vortex and jet stream configuration.[29][31][32][33][34][35][36][37] However, because the specific observations are considered short-term observations (starting c. 13 years ago) there is considerable uncertainty in the conclusions. Climatology observations require several decades to definitively distinguish natural variability from climate trends.

Summing it up, does global warming exist when taking in all these factors? Yes, particularly if there's an increase in anomalies, the precursors to phase transitions, where one state replaces another due to an environmental change such as heat, the agent that transforms water into a solid, a liquid or to a gas, depending on how hot the environment gets. 

)

Earth's Northern Hemisphere over the past 30 years has seen more "hot" (orange), "very hot" (red) and "extremely hot" (brown) summers, compared to a base period defined in this study from 1951 to 1980. This visualization shows how the area experiencing "extremely hot" summers grows from nearly nonexistent during the base period to cover 12 percent of land in the Northern Hemisphere by 2011. Watch for the 2010 heat waves in the Middle East, Western Asia and Eastern Europe, and the 2011 heat waves in Texas, Oklahoma and Mexico. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

Addendum, Click 15 Seconds, a short BRT bulb showing just how hot the world has become in the last 60 years. Something for thought if you ask me.

The Tipping Point

We all know indirectly about phase transitions when we see a pond freezing over. The day before, 50% of the surface of the water is ice free. The next day, ice covers the whole pond. Symmetry breaking of the same order is being predicted for the earth when the 50% tipping point of the earth being used by man becomes the point of no return regarding how life will cope in a world forever changed by us.

The authors note that studies of small-scale ecosystems show that once 50-90 percent of an area has been altered, the entire ecosystem tips irreversibly into a state far different from the original, in terms of the mix of plant and animal species and their interactions. This situation typically is accompanied by species extinctions and a loss of biodiversity.

Currently, to support a population of 7 billion people, about 43 percent of Earth's land surface has been converted to agricultural or urban use, with roads cutting through much of the remainder. The population is expected to rise to 9 billion by 2045; at that rate, current trends suggest that half Earth's land surface will be disturbed by 2025. To Barnosky, this is disturbingly close to a global tipping point.

As man approaches this phase transition, warning signs continually pop up telling us we better change our ways or else. Consider another Phys.org piece titled Arctic ice melt sets stage for cold winter, something yours truly experienced first hand in 2010 in CT or the Winter From Hell fame.  To whit.

Negative Arctic Oscillation conditions are associated with higher pressure in the Arctic and a weakened polar vortex (yellow arrows). A weakened jet stream (black arrows) is characterized by larger-amplitude meanders in its trajectory and a reduction in the wave speed of those meanders.


A diminished latitudinal pressure gradient is linked to a weakening of the winds associated with the polar vortex and jet stream. Since the polar vortex normally retains the cold Arctic air masses up above the Arctic Circle, its weakening allows the cold air to invade lower latitudes.

With these wide swings in weather gradients happening more often and with greater intensity, CT lucked out in 2011 while Europe froze, something akin to runaway blowback or the law of unforeseen consequences writ large. The question to ask now is, when does the Northeast get hit again?

No one knows, do one. - Fats Waller

A Polar Vortex

A Polar Vortex, aka The Alberta Clipper, actually created the kind of winter yours truly grew up in save the level of snow was rather sparse but at least there was enough to see why winter's
rather special from this writer's perspective. Enjoy.

On Reaching 1200 & The Polar Vortex

Sea to Land/The Polar Vortex from Robert Moran on Vimeo.

Cold does not describe how frigid conditions were in shooting this short video but the clarity of air, combined with the formation of delicate ice sculptures and fortitude of the seagulls and ducks residing in the sound, encouraged yours truly to go out and deal with the elements using an ancient 500mm Nikkor Reflex lens & Sony video camera to do the deed.

With this in mind, doing the video seems fitting rather then writing a blurb about tech & science as the tech used to record this clip is astounding (both old and new) given just how powerful digital has become circa 2014.

I also think reaching 1200 posts is fairly significant but not earth shattering as there's far too much grist in the mill to stop writing about such interesting subjects that warm the cockles of this old writer's heart. :)

Best

Robert E.

The Polar Vortex circa 2019 ...

"Wonderful" BRT has waxed poetic about the weakening of the polar vortex and jet stream due to the impact of global warming which allows colder air to move south while warmer air pushes north, thus freezing different parts of the country in ways that truly boggle the mind depending on how far south certain parts of the jet stream extends at a given point in time. 

& so it goes ... Kurt Vonnegut.

Winter/Rev II

Winter makes a comeback with a fairly intense polar vortex/Alberta Clipper and ... an intense 16" snowstorm on 2/1/2021. Sail clip covers 5 days starting with the onset of cold and ending in bright sunshine with beaucoup snow requiring X country skies or snowshoes, take your pick. Enjoy. :)

300/3000 ...

300/3000 ... = 300 blurbs in 2019, 3000 blurbs since 2007, something somewhat significant IMHO. What's even more significant is the fact you, my loyal readers, continue to read the musings of a senior citizen talking about all things related to science and tech and how both disciplines impact civilization 24/7.

This piece will not have links to sources more intelligent than said writer's (save 2) but rather personal takes on 2020, life in general and the issue of mortality as BRT has been fairly impersonal in its 12 years of existence inspired by a dear friend who said "You think you know a little bit so prove it." Hopefully I have and will continue to do so as there is simply too much happening to quit now in-spite of a world going mad as man moves ever forward into the 21st century. Note: this is a partial take at best.

The long decline

America is losing its mojo. From disastrous foreign policy endeavors beginning after WWII to the substitution of innovation in favor of money manipulation favoring the elite, the country's financial well being is being frittered away by greed (elimination of Glass-Stegall), incompetence and government corruption, not only in terms of tax code malfeasance favoring the rich but also with the fact there are no term limits, thus guaranteeing the pols never-ending quest for money in order to get re-elected no matter what the cost may be. This lack of term limits for the supremes also applies as this gives too much power to any sitting president in determining what political direction the country may go based on the kind of justice chosen for the job. Think Alito, Kavanaugh and Scalia for starters with Thomas in the wings.

The art of stupid

The educational construct in America is lacking to say the least and tech is one reason why this is so. Consider the smartphone and texting. In order to do this efficiently, newspeak is required due to the small form factor of the tech being used. This compression equation of newspeak ties in nicely with the use of emojis as showing one a happy face in social media equates to one-click while typing happy requires five. Expand this notion to writing whereby thought and the ability to tie together cogent thoughts necessitates taking the time and effort to make it happen, something starting to get rarer as AI is beginning to be used to replicate this valuable practice at speeds well beyond the ken of man. Endpaper. Nooze rules to sell ads and shape opinion. A lack of education makes the sell easy.

Thinking Elysium

The environment's unraveling, not only in terms of climate change but also in terms of environmental degradation and resource depletion, driven in large part by fossil fuel use, pollution and the impact of too many people living on planet earth. By 2050, the weakening polar vortex and jet stream, caused by global warming, will disrupt food production in unpredictable ways while intense drought and rising waters promise to displace millions, reminiscent of the film Elysium, a dystopian near-future view of mankind heading toward an abyss of our own making.

Technical incompetence & the denial of science

 All one has to do is listen to the president and congress talk tech to see just how blindingly ignorant these people truly are. The denial of science is even worse, not only in terms of the long term adverse effect it will have on the well being of the populace but also on the long term well being of the country. China has caught up to the US in terms of patents and computation and has surpassed the US in terms of developing rapid mass transit at a rate beyond anything this country has to offer. At the same time this is happening, the shortsighted view of never-ending growth and continued support of old industries like coal, fracking and drilling promise to accelerate the decline of the US while the rest of the world rapidly moves toward sustainables like wind, solar and wave. 

2020, politics & the end of the world

Politics, the art of lying and protecting the deep state of every country since the beginning of time, has reached its zenith (or nadir/take your pick) with the elections of far-right "populists" Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonro and Boris Johnson, provocateurs one and all, supporting the powers at be at all costs while the end of the world awaits thanks to climate change and the inability of nations to get their act together to ameliorate this existential threat to mankind. 

Regarding 2020, the Constitutional Crisis begins and ends with Trump with three questions silently moldering on the minds of thinking people everywhere ... 

1. The real 2016 Russigate ... How far will Barr and Durham go in their criminal proceedings?
2.  Will Trump leave if defeated? and ...
3. What will his hardcore followers do if Agent Orange is defeated?

On mortality

Gaff: It's a shame that she won't live, but then again, who does? - Blade Runner

Being a senior, yours truly thinks about mortality and ... the important things in one's life. 

To this writer it's

• Family. Having a son and his family close to my wife and me, rules. Ditto for two brothers and two sisters. On my wife's side, her niece's family rules.
• Friends, the close ones are truly rare indeed.
• Good art. You know, Miles, Shakespeare, Conrad, Twain, Carlin, Orwell, etc, etc, etc.
• Cartoons of all stripes :)
• Good coffee
• Good conversation
• Good wine & beer
• Pretty women - all ages :)
• Innovative tech
• Insightful science
• Good health
• Last but not least, having an open mind and the will to keep on moving :)

Any questions? :)