Iran won

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Kyle Mazza/Anadolu and Majid Saeedi via Getty Images

Iran won

The White House believes it's getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, according to two U.S. officials and two other sources briefed on the issue.

• The big picture: The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.
• Among other provisions, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Many of the terms laid out in the memo would be contingent on a final agreement being reached, leaving the possibility of renewed war or an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved.

The reality ...

• The Iran Side: They receive billions in liquidity and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz—the literal backbone of their economy.
• The U.S. Side: They receive a "Note"—a promise of a moratorium that can be undone the moment the "Timed" political cycle shifts.

The losers 

The US and Israel. Israel is the pariah of the world. A phase shift of historical proportions await as giving everything Israel wants is over and ... with luck, Bibi goes to jail. As for the US, depletion of expensive ordinance, loss of connects to allies and an ongoing question of ... what to do about the bases in the Gulf States looms as Iran got what it wanted. THE RIGHT TO BE LEFT ALONE.