Guesstimates/rev XXX

Photo by Nigel Tadyanehondo on Unsplash

Just as you cannot petition the lord with prayer as per Jim Morrison of the Doors, one cannot predict the future thanks, in part, to quantum mechanics and the vicissitudes of mankind even though man has tried since the beginning of time. 

In addition to quantum mechanics, think Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, Godel's Incompleteness Theorem and Chaos Theory's law of initial conditions as inconvertible proof the discipline of accurately predicting the future will forever remain a guesstimate at best.

Rulers from Mesopotamia to Manhattan have sought knowledge of the future in order to obtain strategic advantages—but time and again, they have failed to interpret it correctly, or they have failed to grasp either the political motives or the speculative limitations of those who proffer it. More often than not, they have also chosen to ignore futures that force them to face uncomfortable truths. Even the technological innovations of the 21st century have failed to change these basic problems—the results of computer programs are, after all, only as accurate as their data input.

There is an assumption that the more scientific the approach to predictions, the more accurate forecasts will be. But this belief causes more problems than it solves, not least because it often either ignores or excludes the lived diversity of human experience. Despite the promise of more accurate and intelligent technology, there is little reason to think the increased deployment of AI in forecasting will make prognostication any more useful than it has been throughout human history.

Reality bites ...

Seminary School (a.k.a. Petition the Lord with Prayer)