Moore's Law has held up for 50 years regarding the effective doubling of compute speeds based on the doubling of chip density every two years, a prediction truly remarkable without question. With this being said, the number of variables involving said advancements is minuscule in comparison to predicting the vagaries of the stock market or trying to predict what society will be like in 5 years unless one is humble enough to hazard guesses as reality, as stated before, is quantum, where certitude is but a mirage yet people resist and assume, aka the ass of you and me, in spite of these hard truths.
Acceleration is a given but some of the prognostications made by leading researchers give one pause as unlimited acceleration states the obvious, its unlimited but nature doesn't work that way.
This articulates acceleration beautifully but one should question this ...
What's not being said is the fact Kursweil's take is a model, a guesstimate baed on a limited amount of data, not reality. Climatologists modify their models endlessly whenever more data comes in as one cannot capture the entirety of the reality in which a given event exists. Chaos has proven this to be true as the law of initial conditions rule.
Love the optimism but if it sounds too good to be true, it is.
The Medium piece about accelerating change is worth reading without question but at the same time, assumptions are being made at grand scale and we all know what that means, right?
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