The Camel's nose ...

Photograph: Sergei Bobylev/TASS/Getty Images

Years ago, when Lyndon Johnson was president, the problem of dealing with the continued presence of J. Edgar Hoover, the detested head of the FBI back in the day, had to be dealt with. Knowing Hoover kept dossiers on just about every pol in Washington, Johnson decided to keep Hoover in charge using this classic quote as to the reason why Hoover was kept on. "It’s probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in." Prudence won the day regarding that miserable human being but the question to ask here is not about Hoover but rather ... is the Camel's nose in the tent the start point for having the entire animal coming inside vis a vis AI and it's increasingly influential relationship regarding the future of dogfights as the military goes further into the 21st century?

THE DOGFIGHT HARDLY seemed fair.

Two F-16s engaged with an opposing F-16 at an altitude of 16,000 feet above rocky desert terrain. As the aircraft converged from opposite directions, the paired F-16s suddenly spun away from one another, forcing their foe to choose one to pursue. The F-16 that had been left alone then quickly changed course, maneuvering behind the enemy with textbook precision. A few seconds later, it launched a missile that destroyed the opposing jet before it could react.

The battle took place last month in a computer simulator. Here’s what made it special: All three aircraft were controlled by artificial intelligence algorithms. Those algorithms had learned how to react and perform aerial maneuvers partly through a state-of-the-art AI technique that involves testing different approaches thousands of times and seeing which work best.

The three-way battle offers a glimpse of how AI may control future fighter jets—and the likely challenges of deploying the technology.

Caveats

The workings of modern AI raise questions about how feasible it would be to deploy the technology, however. Pilots would be required to put their trust, and their lives, in the hands of algorithms that work in mysterious ways. Real fighter pilot trainees spend months learning the correct protocols for flying and fighting in tandem. With several jets wheeling around one another at high speed, the slightest error or miscommunication could prove catastrophic.

Skepticism

She’s skeptical that advanced AI is really needed for dogfights, where planes could be guided by a simpler set of hand-coded rules. She is also wary of the Pentagon’s rush to adopt AI, saying errors could erode faith in the technology. “The more the DOD fields bad AI, the less pilots, or anyone associated with these systems, will trust them,” she says.

The Camel's nose indeed.

According to this classic tale, one cold night, a camel asks his master if he can put his head in the tent for warmth. “By all means and welcome,” said the man; and the camel stretches his head into the tent. Soon after, the camel inquires if he may also bring his neck and front legs inside. Again, the master agrees.

Finally, the camel asks, “May I not stand wholly within?” With pity, the master beckons him into the warm tent. But when the camel comes forward it becomes clear that the tent is too small for them both. “I think,” the camel said, “that there is not room for both of us here. It will be best for you to stand outside, as you are the smaller; there will then be room enough for me.” And with that, the man is forced outside of his tent.

Any questions?