Sunday, January 01, 2012

Guesstimates


Because quantum theory, chaos, the law of initial conditions and the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics preclude the ability to predict the future, the only other option one can take regarding the reading of tea leaves vis a vis the future is to guess, something that can be somewhat accurate if one is aware of strange attractors and the entities attracted to same. So, as Kurt Vonnegut says, And so it goes.

Some 2012 negatives -  A tiny sampling to be sure: 
  • Obama signs the National Defense Authorization Act - Due process gone in the name of security
  •  PIPA & SOPA - Web censorship writ large if congress has it's way.
  • The endless Presidential Campaign - Promises never kept, just ask Obama about this.
  • Presidential Campaign II - From Obama to the Repugs, incompetency, fanaticism, ignorance and corruption rule the day. A third party disruptor may show up given the sorry condition this once great nation is in. 
  • Congress - Bought and paid for comes to mind along with sloth, unenlightened self interest and craven ineptness
  • Religion - Reality, as seen through the wrong end of a telescope, continues to thrive in the land of the free, home of the brave. 
  • Nationalism - Religion's first cousin
  • Corporate Personhood - Judge Roberts & Company have no shame
  • Endless war - Iran could be next now that the Iraq fubar has finally run it's course.
  • Global Warming - Don't ask, don't tell
  • Oceans Under Siege - Overfishing, pollution (BP anyone?) and GW, the troika from hell portends disaster if we don't change course
  • Habitat Loss -   The second Great Dying looms
  • Fossil Fuel Addiction - Continues unabated
  • Resource Depletion - We consume more then the earth can provide. 
  • The 99% - The potential for violence is nigh, especially from those with no jobs, no homes and no hope thanks to WS malfeasance perpetuated on the US aided and abetted by government, the Fed and big business.
  • The Press or lack thereof - George Orwell and Paddy Chayefsky had it right all along
  • Reality Shows - The race toward the bottom continues unabated
  • Central Bank follies - Printing money does not equate to generating value through innovation and real capitalism. Just look at Europe and the US to see why.
  • The XL Pipeline - A short term fix to maintain the unsustainable
  • Water Wars - Privatization of something that never should be privatized. Akin to the patenting of genes by big pharma thanks to the ineptness of the US patent office.
  • Crony Capitalism -  Without risk and transparency, the country cannot succeed, something the Fed will never understand while bailing out incompetent bankers and foreign interests as needs warrant. 
  • Fascism - The US is moving toward it thanks to opacity and the power of the banks, with help of significant others, to control the courts, government and the military.
  • We Can't Handle the Truth - Ignorance is not bliss
Some 2012 pluses Tiny sampler II:
  • The Higgs Boson will finally be found. Noble Laureates anyone?
  • M Theory will finally start to become real
  • Solar gets real.
  • Artificial Photosynthesis gets real
  • Robotics takes off
  • Fabbing takes off
  • Digital money makes headway. Bitcoin is but a first step
  • Cancer begins to be treated as chronic disease rather then inevitable death sentence
  • Stem cell research begins to pay off in disease control and the ability to generate new organs as needs warrant. Time frame - 10 years 
  • Finance & Governance - The demand for real transparency of all things political, financial and corporate gathers momentum.
  • Tech, in general, shrinks in size while increasing in power. Distributed systems, cloud computing, AI and all things digital will presage the arrival of the singularity as the infrastructure is in place to make it happen if the financial and political system doesn't totally implode. Other specifics include the rise of solid state memory, flexible quantum dot displays and 3D chip design, things that will transform smart phones, pads and other discrete devices into objects of unimaginable power.
  • Education - The inexorable push into digital finally starts to impact US education in a good way as tech cannot be stopped, only harnessed, something people are finally understanding as we move further into the 21st century.
End game: 2012 looks problematical to say the least, thanks, in large part, to the negative impact the central banks have had on the world's economy. Factoring this in with peak oil, endless war,  inept governance and climate change only adds to the treacherous sledding envisioned for the upcoming year but there is hope. Science, tech, innovation and creativity, combined with an emerging sense that we are the 99%, can make a difference but only if we have the courage to make it happen.

Remember, maintaining the status quo is, in fact, Einstein's definition of Insanity of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. 


Lest we forget HAPPY NEW YEAR! :)
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