The Singularity ... redux

Crystal Logic ... via Gemeni & R.E. 2024

Now we have it. The word's out. ASI, aka Artificial Super Intelligence,
is coming whether we like it or not. We are not ready for this. 

To whit.

Geoffrey Hinton, one of the "godfathers" of AI, is adamant that AI will surpass human intelligence — and worries that we aren't being safe enough about its development.

This isn't just his opinion, though it certainly carries weight on its own. In an interview with the BBC's Newsnight program, Hinton claimed that the idea of AI surpassing human intelligence as an inevitability is in fact the consensus of leaders in the field.

"Very few of the experts are in doubt about that," Hinton told the BBC. "Almost everybody I know who is an expert on AI believes that they will exceed human intelligence — it's just a question of when."

The Singularity ...

1993 - Verner Vinge: Within thirty years, we will have the technological means
to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.

What is The Singularity?

The acceleration of technological progress has been the central

feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge

of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise

cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of

entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means

by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another

reason for having confidence that the event will occur):

The development of computers that are "awake" and

superhumanly intelligent. (To date, most controversy in the

area of AI relates to whether we can create human equivalence

 in a machine. But if the answer is "yes, we can", then there

is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed

shortly thereafter.

Large computer networks (and their associated users) may
"wake up" as a superhumanly intelligent entity.

Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate
that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.

Biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect.

Vinge's right. 2029/30's a viable time frame for AGI to make its presence known. ASI will rise soon after as it's a just a degree of intelligence above AGI as AGI's programming infrastructure will already be in place, able to make ASI a reality sooner rather than later because tech never sleeps, ever.

Focus Point - 2020