Thursday, September 26, 2019
We're in deep shit
The latest
IPCC report
on the world's oceans is dire. If nothing is done, we are screwed.
B1. Global-scale glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw, and decline in snow cover and Arctic sea ice extent are projected to continue in the near-term (2031–2050) due to surface air temperature increases (high confidence), with unavoidable consequences for river runoff and local hazards (high confidence). The Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are projected to lose mass at an increasing rate throughout the 21st century and beyond (high confidence).
The rates and magnitudes of these cryospheric changes are projected to increase further in the second half of the 21st century in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (high confidence). Strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades are projected to reduce further changes after 2050 (high confidence). {2.2, 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2, 3.3, 3.4, Figure SPM.1, SPM Box SPM.1}
B2. Over the 21st century, the ocean is projected to transition to unprecedented conditions with
increased temperatures (virtually certain), greater upper ocean stratification (very likely),
further acidification (virtually certain), oxygen decline (medium confidence), and altered net
primary production (low confidence)
. Marine heatwaves (very high confidence) and extreme El
Niño and La Niña events (medium confidence) are projected to become more frequent. The
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to weaken (very likely). The
rates and magnitudes of these changes will be smaller under scenarios with low greenhouse gas
emissions (very likely). {3.2; 5.2; 6.4; 6.5; 6.7; Box 5.1; Figures SPM.1, SPM.3}
Deep shit indeed.
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